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DISCUSSION: Changes in Prioritization Depending on Influenza Pandemic Severity

COMMENT: so high virulence in SARS didn't preclude it from becoming a pandemic?


Submitted by Caroline Bridgers on 12/5/07 1:08 PM

Thank you so much, Bryan. that's what I thought.

My comment that we were lucky to stop SARS were related to an earlier comment someone made, that a virus like SARS couldn't become a pandemic because it would kill all its hosts before it spread. Clearly we had to work hard to contain the spread of SARS and stop a pandemic of SARS from starting -- it didn't just die out on its own.

My further understanding is that most professionals and scientists agree that we can TRY to stop pandemic influenza but sooner or later it will happen, no matter what we do, because it can be spread at least 1 day and in the case of children maybe a few more days before symptoms start, so the measures used to stop SARS just won't be as effective with pandemic flu.

also, to your comment:

"Regarding how this might affect prioritization: a virus with lower virulence may not require the depth of control measures we needed for SARS. It might be a new virus like the one that emerged inthe '70s: novel but no real increase in mortality over prior seasonal flu events."

Thank you again! I think I understand that a pandemic MAY be quite mild. Fortunately if it is, the long wait for a pandemic flu vaccine (6 months and more) probably wouldn't be a very hard one, and the need to prioritize vaccine only for certain groups, well, that decision would be much less difficult. With a mild virus, fewer people would take avoidance measures, more would just get ill and then recover; and the fear and subsequent demand for a vaccine would simply be much much less.

A virus with a higher virulance -- say one as fatal as SARS was -- only say we didn't manage to stop SARS -- and the prioritization of vaccines 6 months later is just a completely different picture. So much of what will be needed 6 months into this scenario would really depend upon what had happened to our society and economy in the intervening time period.



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Welcome from your Facilitators

Submitted by Nicholas Dewar Facilitator  on 12/5/07 06:15 AM